diff --git a/BDIIR.Rmd b/BDIIR.Rmd index b91dbfb..beaffba 100644 --- a/BDIIR.Rmd +++ b/BDIIR.Rmd @@ -47,9 +47,9 @@ biblio-style: apsr ## Theoretical Background All over the world people are trying to escape persecution, conflicts or violence. They leave their home country, family and friends in hopes that they will have better economic and social opportunities in the receiving country. However, migrants and refugees are often at high risks of serious human rights violations and death on their journey to better expectations. The route they take is often an important factor in calculating the risk of death. Each route has its own pattern, which change over time due to multilateral agreements or the development of conflicts. Moreover, migrants’ economic situation also matters. Their financial security affects whether they can afford to pay smugglers. The price migrants pay a smuggler for their journey on the Mediterranean Sea is responsible for their place on a boat. Places on the top deck are more expensive, because in the event of a shipwreck, it is easier to escape from above than from the inside of the boat [@IOMsGlobalMigrationDataAnalysisCentre.2016]. Smugglers can charge a lot of money tickets because places on a boat to get to Europe are sought after. The popularity of the route is one reason why this report focuses on the Mediterranean area. Migrants’ journey to Europe is closely linked to a high risk. According to the International Organization of Migration (IOM), about two thirds of the total number of deaths and disappearances worldwide occur on migrants’ way to Europe. This is mainly due to oversea routes [@Black.2017]. However, it is also possible that many more died on their way to the country of departure. But deadly incidents which happen overland are reported less frequently, as migrants are often alone or only accompanied by one or two other migrants compared to oversea journeys. The large number of reported incidents on the Mediterranean oversea routes is another reason why this report focuses only on this area [@Black.2017]. -There are mainly three main routes to come to Europe oversea: Eastern Mediterranean route from Turkey to Greece, Central Mediterranean route from North Africa to Italy and Malta and finally the Western Mediterranean route between Morocco and Spain. +There are three main routes to come to Europe oversea: Eastern Mediterranean route from Turkey to Greece, Central Mediterranean route from North Africa to Italy and Malta and finally the Western Mediterranean route between Morocco and Spain. At the beginning of the “refugee crisis” in 2015, the route through the Eastern Mediterranean was migrants’ most important irregular entry to Europe, mainly used by Syrians and Afghan citizens but also by migrants from South Asia. After the implementation of the European Union - Turkey announcement on March 18, 2016, arrivals declined rapidly. The goal of the agreement was to restrict irregular migration routes from Turkey to the EU, create better living conditions for migrants who need to stay in Turkey before they can continue their journey, and to guarantee legal migration to Europe. In addition to reducing the number of migrants entering Europe irregularly, the agreement has brought financial and political benefits for Turkey. As a result, arrivals to Turkey dropped by around 97 percent [@EuropeanCommission.2019]. The consequences for migrants on their way to Europe were immediately obvious. 83 percent of deaths were reported before the implementation of the agreement in March 2016 [@IOMsGlobalMigrationDataAnalysisCentre.2017]. -Hence, migrants had to consider other options to get to Europe and the importance of the Central Mediterranean route increased. Embarking to Italy or Malta mainly takes place in Libya, but also in Egypt, Tunisia or Algeria some vessels start their journey to Europe. The route is mainly used by migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa, Horn of Africa or Western Africa [@Black.2017; @TheUNRefugeeAgency.2018]. According to the International Organization of Migration, the Central Mediterranean route is considered to be the deadliest migration route in the world. It has the highest number of deaths and missing migrants in the Mediterranean sea. Between 2014 and 2017, 1 in 50 migrants died on their way crossing the sea from Africa to Italy. This number is especially striking in comparison to the Eastern Mediterranean route where 1 in 900 migrants died or disappeared [@Black.2017]. Although the number of migrants arriving in Italy fell by 65 percent between July and September 2017, the number of reported dead and missing migrants decreased by only 47 percent [@Black.2017]. There are many hypotheses as to why the total number of migrants has decreased, but the number of fatalities has not. One explanation is based on reports which indicate that migrants are stranded in Libya. The government is preventing them from making their way to Europe [@AmnestyInternational.2015]. Another possible factor is the increased use of less-seaworthy vessels by smugglers. The IOM assumes that a higher proportion of rubber dinghies are used. These vessels are less robust than wooden boats and may deflate during the journey. The increased number of deaths on this route may also be related to increasingly dangerous smuggling practices, where more than one boat leaves Libya at a time or embarking is not restricted to better weather and sea conditions anymore [@Black.2017]. +Hence, migrants had to consider other options to get to Europe and the importance of the Central Mediterranean route increased. Embarking to Italy or Malta mainly takes place in Libya, but also in Egypt, Tunisia or Algeria some vessels start their journey to Europe. The route is mainly used by migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa, Horn of Africa or Western Africa [@Black.2017; @TheUNRefugeeAgency.2018]. According to the International Organization of Migration, the Central Mediterranean route is considered to be the deadliest migration route in the world. It has the highest number of deaths and missing migrants in the Mediterranean sea. Between 2014 and 2017, 1 in 50 migrants died on their way crossing the sea from Africa to Italy. This number is especially striking in comparison to the Eastern Mediterranean route where 1 in 900 migrants died or disappeared [@Black.2017]. Although the number of migrants arriving in Italy fell by 65 percent between July and September 2017, the number of reported dead and missing migrants decreased by only 47 percent [@Black.2017]. There are many hypotheses as to why the total number of migrants has decreased, while the number of fatalities has not. One explanation is based on reports which indicate that migrants are stranded in Libya. The government is preventing them from making their way to Europe [@AmnestyInternational.2015]. Another possible factor is the increased use of less-seaworthy vessels by smugglers. The IOM assumes that a higher proportion of rubber dinghies are used. These vessels are less robust than wooden boats and may deflate during the journey. The increased number of deaths on this route may also be related to increasingly dangerous smuggling practices, where more than one boat leaves Libya at a time or embarking is not restricted to better weather and sea conditions anymore [@Black.2017]. The third route, which is less covered by media, is the Western Mediterranean route. Comparatively few migrants use this route for their crossing, which is one reason for the lower level of global attention. This makes it difficult to estimate the number of deceased and missing migrants as the incidents are less well known. However, the importance of this route is raising. While between January and September 2016 only 3,808 migrants crossed the Mediterranean Sea from Morocco to Spain, which is only 14 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, 12,122 migrants crossed the borders in the same period in 2017 [@IOMsGlobalMigrationDataAnalysisCentre.2017b]. So far, the number of dead and missing migrants has increased every year of the IOM’s project. Of course, this is partly a result of the increased total number of migrants. One reason for the raising arrivals in Spain is the uprisings in the Moroccan Rif region in 2016/ 2017. However, the increase in deaths in relation to the number of arrivals in Spain shows that migration is becoming increasingly dangerous here too. On reason for the rising number of deaths is that the successful crossing of border fences between the two countries over many years has been made more difficult by the increase in the number of security forces. Nowadays, the escape from Morocco has increasingly shifted to boats or to trying to cross the Mediterranean by swimming through the ocean. The literature review reports that the patterns and dangers of the Mediterranean routes are constantly changing due to intergovernmental agreements, increased frontier protection or emerging conflicts. With regard to the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal 10.7 which aims an orderly and safe migration, current literature indicate that migration has become less and not more safe. Nonetheless, former literature only concentrate in their reports on a particular year or route. This reports aims to provide an overview of the changing patterns in all three Mediterranean routes from 2014 - 2019. Does a comparison of all routes reveal that migration has become less safe? What are consequences of the EU-Turkey agreement? Can the data confirm the hypothesis that embarking is no longer restricted to good weather conditions? What is the general trend for developments in 2019? For the descriptive analysis, this report uses the latest available data from the UN’s missing migrants dataset, which was updated on May, 09 2019. To the best of our knowledge, a report on the latest developments in 2019 has not yet been published. @@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ The literature review reports that the patterns and dangers of the Mediterranean To be specific, in the Mediterranean region, national authorities deliver the information to IOM field missions. At landing points in Italy and Greece, IOM and other organizations which receive survivors obtain the data. Also, IOM cooperates with UNHCR, the United Nation Refugee Agency, at the Mediterranean region to validate the data on missing migrants. On the other hand, on the United States and Mexico border, U.S county medical examiners, coroners, sheriff’s officers and media reports covering the death on the Mexican side of the border provide and accumulate the data. Lastly, in Africa, media, NGOs, such as Regional Mixed Migration Secretariat and International Red Cross or Red Crescent gather the data concerning the issue. The missing migrants project covers various information about migrants’ missings and death. It includes the region of incident, reported date, reported year, reported month, number dead, number missing, total dead and missing, number of survivors, number of females, males, and children, age, country of origin, region of origin, cause of death, location description, location coordinates, migration routes, UNSD geographical grouping, source quality, and further comments. The number of deaths indicates the total number of people confirmed dead in an incident. The people who are presumed to be dead due to an incident such as shipwrecks are left to be blank. Meanwhile, the number of missing migrants covers the shipwreck in general. It is recorded by subtracting the number of bodies recovered and the number of survivors from the total original number of migrants on the boat. The information also relies on a report by surviving migrants or witness. Where there are no reported missing migrants, it is left blank. The age of decedents is occasionally substituted with estimated age range. If it is not reported, it is left blank. Region of origin of the decedent's are at times recorded as ‘Presumed’ or (P) and if it is unknown, ‘unknown’ is recorded. When the cause of death could not be identified, the reason for the missing of identification is recorded (e.g., Unknown - Skeletal remains only). Migration routes show the migration route where the incident took place. With the help of this variable it is possible to examine changing patterns of the different routes mentioned above in the Mediterranean Sea. Lastly, source quality describes the quality of the incident's information with the 1-5 level. Level 1 incidents are based solely on a media source, level 2 incidents are based on uncorroborated eyewitness or data from survey respondents, and level 3 are based on information from more than one media reports. On the other hand, level 4 incidents have to be based on information from at least one NGO, IGO, or another humanitarian actor with direct knowledge of the incident. Level 5 incident is the information from official sources such as coroners, medical examiners, or government officials from multiple humanitarian actors. Hence, the methodologies seeking for maximal accuracy and timeliness are employed. However, it is important to keep in mind that the data can only be seen as approximations due to the difficulty in obtaining these data. Nonetheless, the project’s data can serve as a good starting point to analyse the scale and trends of the routes that migrants take. - All the analysis is done with the software R and Python. To make data comprehension easier, many graphs and charts are used to describe the data. Furthermore, ANOVA test is done to test the differences between the months. + All the analysis is done with the software R and Python. To make data comprehension easier, many graphs and charts are used to describe the data. Furthermore, the differences between the months is tested with ANOVA. @@ -475,4 +475,4 @@ mapanimated <- IOM has already demonstrated the advantages of big data in migration research [@black.2017a]. Big data refers to the new type of data and is often defined with 3V characteristics; Volume, Velocity, Variety [@Japec.2015]. Volume refers to its sheer big size of the data. Velocity indicates the rapid speed at which the real-time data is collected and lastly, variety means various forms in which data could exist without being limited to traditional structured data. Following these trends, the use of big data for migration research has been constantly insisted. IOM suggested some examples of big data in migration research at its 2017 report [@black.2017b]. One example is the use of Automatic Identification System data (AIS). AIS is a maritime communications system and its information is mainly used to avoid collisions but as this information is gathered in a relatively short interval and covers the maritime movement, AIS data makes a systematic analysis of quantified migrant rescues in the ocean possible. As AIS data example, combining missing migrants project data with other external big data is expected to broaden the migration research’s possibilities. In this regard, this report suggests combining the weather data with the missing migrants project’s data firstly, to improve the systematic analysis of fatality in migration journey and secondly, build safety guidelines for the migrants. - To begin with, even though the causes of deaths and missings are specified in the data, precise factors lead to the dangerousness is not described in the data and only months are presumed to affect the safety of journey. Since the deaths and missings mainly take place during the journey through the ocean, which is heavily affected by the ocean currents and weather, weather data might provide further explanation for the factors lead to a dangerous journey. Also, this report has revealed that summer months has significantly different results. On top of that, if the weather is found to be the main determinant of successful arrival, safety guideline for migrants and the administrations could be built by exploring the weather and the location. To be specific, it could inform migrants who intend to take a specific migration route at specific weather, specific season and location the dangerousness level of the journey based on previous data. Also, based on the weather and the routes, the administrations could reinforce its rescue-ship infrastructure. However, due to a budget issue, this report couldn’t implement weather data into the analysis. Future improvement by researchers is expected. + To begin with, even though the causes of deaths and missings are specified in the data, precise factors lead to the dangerousness is not described in the data and only months are presumed to affect the safety of journey. Since the deaths and missings mainly take place during the journey through the ocean, which is heavily affected by the ocean currents and weather, weather data might provide further explanation for the factors lead to a dangerous journey. Also, this report has revealed that summer season has significantly different results. On top of that, if the weather is found to be the main determinant of successful arrival, safety guideline for migrants and the administrations could be built by exploring the weather and the location. To be specific, it could inform migrants who intend to take a specific migration route at specific weather, specific season and location the dangerousness level of the journey based on previous data. Also, based on the weather and the routes, the administrations could reinforce its rescue-ship infrastructure. However, due to a budget issue, this report couldn’t implement weather data into the analysis. Future improvement by researchers is expected.