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Unbiased Estimation

  • A parameter is associated with a population.
  • A statistic is associated with a sample.
  • A statistic is biased if it systematically overestimates or underestimates a parameter.
  • A statistic is unbiased if it does systematically overestimate or underestimate a parameter.

Everything we care about is an estimator; the sample mean estimates the population mean, the sample variance estimates the population variance, the statistical learning model built on the sample estimates the statistical model that generates the population.

$$ \begin{align}

E[\hat{\theta}] & = \theta \

\text{For example:} \

E[\bar{X}] & = \mu

\end{align} $$