ManifoldBot

A Python package for creating intelligent trading bots for Manifold Markets. See also some alteratives from a contest to improve this repo.

Quick Start

1. Installation

pip install manifoldbot

2. Set API Keys

export MANIFOLD_API_KEY="your_manifold_api_key"
export OPENAI_API_KEY="your_openai_key"

(or place these in .env)

3. Run the LLM Trading Bot

Trade all markets with AI:

python -m manifoldbot.examples.bot.llm_trading_bot --all

Or trade recent markets only:

python -m manifoldbot.examples.bot.llm_trading_bot

What It Does

The LLM trading bot:

• Analyzes market questions using GPT
• Compares AI probability vs current market probability
• Places bets when there's a significant difference (≥5%)
• Only bets when confidence is high (≥60%)

Is it quicker to use this package or just vibe from the start?

I can't honestly say but this package does take care of things like careful iterative market-impact adjusted fractional Kelly betting and so forth.

More Examples

See manifoldbot/examples/ for additional examples:

• manifold/basic_reader.py - Read market data (no API key needed)
• manifold/basic_writer.py - Place bets manually
• bot/ai_optimist_trading_bot.py - Simple rule-based bot that thinks people underestimate AI, generally

Documentation

• Full Documentation
• Tutorial
• API Reference

License

MIT License - see LICENSE file for details.