Does K-shaped inequality actually exist in India — and can inflation forecasting help reveal it?
- Does inflation affect rural and urban workers differently?
- Do urban wages recover faster after inflation spikes while rural wages stagnate?
- Can forecasting models identify inflation shocks early enough to predict this divergence?
- If a K-shaped pattern exists, how can data-driven policies reduce it?
When talking about inflation and economy, it is important to understand that there are 2 Indias:
- Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) -All-India General, Group and Sub-group level CPI and CFPI numbers for Rural, Urban and Combined (Base Year : 2012= 100) from January 2013 to November 2025: https://esankhyiki.mospi.gov.in/catalogue-main/catalogue/tableview/692003db9fdbd52e47b7a94f
- Aggregated Report from MOSPI of CPI, used for the Time Series data: https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/press_release/CPI_PR_13Jan25.pdf
- OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER DEPARTMENT FOR PROMOTION OF INDUSTRY AND INTERNAL TRADE- WPI Index Data: https://eaindustry.nic.in/download_data_1112.asp And https://eaindustry.nic.in/
- Reserve Bank of India- USD to INR Exchange Rate: https://data.rbi.org.in/ and https://data.rbi.org.in/BOE/OpenDocument/2409031244/OpenDocument/opendoc/openDocument.jsp?logonSuccessful=true&shareId=0
- Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell- Crude Oil FOB Prices Indian Basket: https://ppac.gov.in/prices/international-prices-of-crude-oil Crude oil affects almost every sector via transportation, manufacturing, and energy costs.